Euro 2012 : The Final Countdown

It's quite surprising how fast the Euro Championships have flown past. On Sunday evening it will be all over but we still have three games to go. My predictions for the quarter finals were much better than my random guessing of the group stages: even down to predicting that the Italy vs England match would be goalless and go to penalties. It’s a little disappointing that England have gone out but Italy were much the better side and deserved to go through. There now seems to be the standard navel gazing in the media with England having gone from being the new Brazil on Sunday morning to a hopeless bunch of amateurs by night-time. Of course, they are neither and I think Roy Hodgson has done well to get the side as far as they did considering his short time in charge and the number of injuries to key players in the run up to the tournament. However, the hard work starts now and he needs to ensure that the promising young stars in the team reach their full potential on the international stage.

I suppose I should make some predictions for the final and I am sticking with Spain vs Germany, although this is as much a vote with the heart than the head. Italy, for all of their passing finesse against England failed to break down that floundering side and of their other games they have only won in open play to Ireland who were always going to be the rank outsiders. I’m hoping for a great game against Germany but my fear is that Italy will simply try to stifle them for 120 minutes. An early German goal would open up the fixture but I think the Germans ability to change to suit their opponents, as they did against Greece, will prove the perfect foil to any Italian spoiling tactics. My feeling is that Germany will concentrate on those players who can pass around their opponents penalty area so it would not surprise me if Gomez starts from the bench and comes on later.

The other game sees Spain against Portugal and I think the Spanish are finding their form again. Certainly, it was a joy to see the quietly outrageous Xabi Alonso score in his 100^th game for his country and the Spaniards’ passing game looked far more purposeful than in the group stages. Portugal, on the other hand, have gone from a disappointing start to show some real flair but I really find it hard to like a team that resort to blatant cheating on such a regular basis. Maybe it is more acceptable in Portuguese football but the fact that their players take a dive whenever an opponent gets within range is infuriating. However, even if contact is made, rolling around clutching their faces when they have had the slightest clip of the heal is surely a case of simulation and should be a yellow card offence? Cristiano Ronaldo used to be one of the worst offenders for this but he seems to have realised that he is going to score more goals with the ball at his feet rather than his hands to his face. However, Nani appears to have taken over the mantle of chief faker. It certainly spoils the entertainment so I hope the Spanish can deal with their neighbours in style.

As for the final, assuming it is Spain vs Germany, I am still going to go for a German win. Spain have been astonishing over the last few years but I think this young German team is going to show that investing in youth pays dividends. I wonder if the home nations are watching?

Euro 2012 Quarter Finals and "Club 12"

It's quarter final time in the Euros so it's interesting to see how my predictions have gone. I predicted Germany, Spain, Italy and France correctly but missed out on England, Portugal, Czech Republic and Greece - and let's face it, I don't think anyone really saw the last one coming. That's a 50% success rate or, to put it another way, about the same as if I had randomly pulled the teams from a hat. So much for my punditry skills! Aside from Greece, England's performances have really surprised. I think the initial draw against France was a big help as it relieved the pressure for the final "away" game against Ukraine. Having said that, the performances have been functional rather than showing great flair but even a "signed up member" of the Tartan Army that I spoke to on Saturday said that he was willing them on against Sweden. I suppose the lack of expectation in the media has made it easier for folk North of Hadrian's Wall to support England but I noticed 1966 mentioned during last night's commentary and the papers have now declared England champions elect so I expect the ABE T-shirts to come out in force and for normal service to be resumed.

As for the quarter finals: I would expect Portugal to beat the Czech Republic (although I'd like see the Czechs win), Germany will beat Greece (unless it is 2004 again), Spain will beat France after passing them to death and I fully expect Italy vs England to go to penalties after a goalless draw (make up your own mind who will win that one). I checked with my match prediction for the competition at work and it looks like I am far more likely to win the wooden spoon that the jackpot. It has been a fairly football related week at work as the fixtures for next season have also been published. I was actually intrigued by this as it is far from certain what format the Scottish league will take next season. The chap who deals with the draw merely said that things had been "accounted for" which seemed all dark and mysterious. In fact I don't think he is fully aware of what the fixtures are before they are published. Aside from programming the rules for the logistic and commercial ordering of the fixtures, it is all done by a computer so no-one really knows until they are published. But it is still fun to be dark and mysterious. As it was, the uncertainty was "accounted for" by publishing the fixtures with a well known name replaced by "Club 12".

I've never been a fan of Rangers Football Club but what has happened to them recently really rather saddens me. It is clear that the club has been mismanaged for many years and we have seen, over the last few months, that the predators and parasites who have brought the club to its knees have been replaced by scavengers looking for their own pound of flesh. The sharks and the leeches that have drawn the financial lifeblood from the Gers have now been replaced by the hyenas, the vultures, the maggots and the worms. There seems to be great concern about the fate of the clubs assets, the affairs of administrators and liquidators, and the effect of Rangers liquidation on TV revenues and the Scottish game in general. However, very little seems to have been said about the concerns of the ordinary Rangers fan.

It might not suit the whims of the suits who run football or the chairmen and sugar daddies who control the clubs but professional football clubs exist because they have fans - not the other way around. If no one wanted to pay to watch football, the clubs and the millions of pounds they throw around like Monopoly money would disappear. Of all the supposed assets that Rangers have the most valuable is that tens of thousands of fans are prepared to give their loyal and undying support to the club. There may be the odd glory hunter that will simply follow the day's winning team and there will always be halfwits who simply use the Old Firm clubs as a hook to hang their bigotry on, but Rangers do have a large and solid fan base who will have supported the club from childhood, as their fathers and grandfathers did before them; watching from the stands and terraces at Ibrox with all its wondrous and sometimes darkened history. Whilst the old Rangers company may have folded out of existence, there is still a great desire amongst those fans for an entity called "Rangers" to act as a focus for their footballing affections.

The question of how Scottish football will move forward is locked in limbo. There may well be a desire amongst the Rangers faithful to see a reimagined Ibrox club filling in the space left by "Club 12" but I don't think this would be the best idea given the tainted reputation of the Rangers name and of Scottish football in general. The SFA are now pressing for a reform of the leagues with the ill-conceived SPL merging with the lower SFL clubs and even going further to create a pyramid of leagues rather then the flat four with the Old Firm at the top and East Stirlingshire at the bottom. This sounds like a much needed reform but quite where Rangers would fit into this depends largely on what the leagues would look like: how many teams would each division have, what kind of promotion and relegation would exist and how would the existing clubs would slot into the structure will all have a bearing on how, where and when a re-established Rangers could be readmitted.

I think much of the problem with the rest of Scottish Football at the moment is that they are reacting to Rangers demise with the intention of maintaining the status quo. Things need to change and they have needed to change for a long time. If a new league structure can be combined with a democratisation of football rather than the two team plutocracy that has existed since the SPL was formed we may actually get to see competitive leagues, better football and a new Rangers football club competing for trophies that actually mean something. I suspect that my legal punditry is probably as poor as my football punditry but I still fully expect to see a club called Rangers competing in the top league of Scottish football at some point: just not now and not as "Club 12".

Larbert Torched

Many years ago I can remember being given the Spitting Image annual which contained various spoofs of other annual publications. Amongst these was The AA Guide to things you are more likely to see coming down the road than the little yellow van. Such unlikely peculiarities included the Kentucky Fried Chicken chicken (a strange feathered beast with 10 pairs of legs) and the Swissknifeosaurus (a sort of stegosaurus with interchangeable multi-use tools in place of the spinal plates). It's all highly amusing (if a little unfair on the AA who provide a very good roadside assistance service) but possibly just as unlikely thing to see coming down the street would be an Olympic Torchbearer in a small Stirlingshire town. However, that's what I managed to see today.

 There is something rather romantic about the idea of the lone torchbearer bringing the flame from Mount Olympus to the Olympic Sports arena but the relay actually has nothing to do Ancient Greece and much more to do with a Nazi propaganda exercise for the 1936 Berlin Olympics. They were into all that neo-classical stuff in a big way. Despite being connected to one of the most detested regimes of the 20th Century I think it was a rather nice idea (wouldn't it have been better if they had stuck to this kind of stunt rather than genocide). Regardless of where it originated from it seems an unlikely thing to see travelling through somewhere like Larbert. In fact it has been right around the UK and over parts of Scotland that really are remote - including a trip across Loch Ness (it would have been a laugh if the monster had popped its head up and blew the flame out).

I actually ended up seeing this with a bunch of 6 and 7 year olds as I had volunteered to help take the kids from our local primary school to see the torch. In fact it looks like all the kids from all the local primary schools were in attendance, along with the children in the High School, their teachers, many of their parents, lots of passers by, anyone living along the route - and their dog. I really had no idea that so many people actually live in Larbert. It did make somewhat of an occasion of it - especially as most people were still armed with flags and bunting from the Jubilee (or was it the Rangers fire sale - I'm not sure). Fortunately, the weather was atypically sunny so there was little chance of the flame going out. I was told there was a backup flame in one of the vehicles (the cynic in me thinks this is a Zippo shaped backup flame). At least the nice weather kept the children cheerful for the duration.

The actual torchbearer is far from lone, with various security guards, police, support vehicles and commercial sponsors in attendance which rather fades my romantic notion of the lone runner. One of the sponsors, an international fizzy beverage manufacturer, tried to supply our 6 and 7 year olds with not entirely healthy drinks but I'm happy to say that their class teacher "took care" of the bottles (lets face it, the children were hyped up enough without being filled with sugary, caffeinated drinks). Aside from that the torch goes past in a flash: little more than the 100 metres final will take to run but considerably cheaper to watch. And it is worth seeing. The Olympics were last in Britain in 1948 so it is unlikely that they will ever be here again in my lifetime. It may be a small thing but it really is a once in a lifetime event (and unlike the recent Transit of Venus it was wasn't ruined by Scottish weather.)

So that was the day the Olympics came to town. I've still got the football at Hampden to look forward to. As I had hoped, we have one of the bigger teams playing with Spain vs Japan on a double bill with Honduras vs Morocco. I'm just hoping the more cynical will just sit back and enjoy the events for a change.

Euro 2012 and the Unexpected Voice.

Well, the Euros are finally underway and it's been a bit of a mixed bag so far. Russia were rampant against the Czechs so my faith in them winning the group seems well placed. I'm not so sure about the Poles having any home advantage, though. They looked good in the first half against the Greeks but went to bits in the second half and were fortunate to get a draw via a penalty save from their substitute goalkeeper. In fairness, that first game was somewhat ruined by the number of dubious refereeing decisions. The Greeks were very unfortunate to have a man sent off for two minor offenses (in fact one looked to be a fair tackle to me) and many of his other decisions seemed niggly or just plain wrong.

The Group of Death has been threatening to be the Group of Dirge but I was right, at least, that the Danes would be key. After the first match, both the Dutch and Portuguese will have to get some sort of result in the second game to stand a chance of progressing. I thought the Danes showed a great example of how to deal with a team that is stronger and more skilled. Not that the Danish team were without star players of their own: sneaking a goal between the keepers legs and defending it against the World Cup finalists is no mean feat - maybe not a pretty one but an effective one. The German's match against the Portuguese was one of the first to pit two of the most fancied nations together. Again, it was no classic although I am beginning to suspect that the high humidity is going to slow games down. The Germans looked rusty but the Portuguese looked plain nasty. It seems to be a feature of their football that they constantly play act or wantonly foul players to gain advantage. As the game progressed this seemed to become more vicious with a punch thrown in a German defenders face that was missed or dismissed by the officials. I disliked these kind of tactics when the Dutch employed them at the last World Cup but with the Netherlands and Portugal due to play each other and in desperate need of points we may actually get to see our first tournament lynching.

This was also the first time I had to give up on the BBC commentators. I used to play the "Motty Game" with my workmates: in a game not involving England, predict how long a commentator can go until they have to mention England. However, the commentary for this game became so parochial that I could only assume that they had done little research on the teams or are simply only interested if they could work in a Manchester United angle to the proceedings. I switched over to Das Erste to escape this twaddle and also discovered that German high definition TV appears to be just that little bit more high definition than the BBC. It's interesting as I assume they are both using the same feed so there must be some technical difference between the Freeview and Astra broadcast standards. Whatever the technical reason, the commentary was bearable and I didn't have to put up with Mark Lawrenson spouting shite.

Speaking of Mark Lawrenson spouting shite, he seems to have it in for the new Liverpool boss, Brendan Rodgers. I'm not quite sure why Lawrenson feels he is such an expert. He was a great player but his short managerial spells have been pretty dismal: at Peterborough, he won only 25 out of 64 games in charge and his time at Oxford was even worse with only 4 wins out of 25 games before being shown the door. Brendan Rodgers record as a manager is relatively limited but his record is far better in more trying circumstances. Lawrenson seems to think it is a big gamble for Liverpool but that is true with any managerial appointment. I can't see Rodgers bringing instant success but that isn't what they need. What he is bringing is a total footballing philosophy which is what the great managers over the years have had. Swansea have been a delight to watch over the last season and if Liverpool are in the entertainment business then this is exactly what they should be aiming at.

The only odd thing with Rodgers for me is his voice. It's quite pleasant: a gentle lilting Ulster accent which should come as no surprise as he comes from the small harbour town of Carnlough in County Antrim. However, for some reason I think he should have a Mancunian accent. Really there is no good reason for this except I think he has a passing resemblance to Christopher Eccleston. I think a few other people have noticed this on internet forums (with a couple of Evertonians suggesting the owners had seen Doctor Who and thought he could wizz time back to 1984). Whoever he actually does look or sound like I think it may be a smart appointment - both in terms of what he can achieve in the long term and what fan expectations are likely to be in the short term. I just hope that he is given time to make an impression as four managers in just over two years is making the club look like damaged goods.

Anyway, Spain vs Italy will be on shortly with the Irish playing tonight. Now, did I put the beer in the fridge or not?

Euro 2012 - The Predictions

Euro 2012 kicks off this Friday. It doesn't seem that long since the World Cup was on but it must be two years ago now. We have had the game predictor competition handed around at work again. Normally, I don't do very well with these but I had a look at my post prior to the last WorldCup and I actually predicted the eventual winners and third place runner up. However, the teams they would be playing were well wide of the mark. The problem with predicting the big tournaments is that club and international form can go out of the window and the knock out stages can prove a lottery and throw the entire prediction. In a way, I prefer the Euros to the World Cup as the teams have to hit the ground running. There are few, if any, "easy" games and the entertainment value tends to be higher for some reason. Anyway, on a group by group basis, these are my predictions...

Group A: Russia were fantastic to watch at the last Euros but came unstuck when they played the more composed sides. I think they will win their group - certainly they will qualify. The second place team is a harder choice - all of the teams are useful in defence. Greece won Euro 2004 simply by being able to shut out other teams and score on the few breaks they achieved. It's not pretty but it is effective. The Czech Republic have one of the best goalkeepers in world football in the shape of Petr Čech but it is Poland (possibly with Arsenal stopper Wojciech Szczesny) who I believe will grab the second slot with home advantage giving them the edge over their rivals.

Group B: Every Euro championship seems to offer up a "Group of Death" and in this competition it is Group B. I would expect Germany and The Netherlands to qualify from this group but if either Portugal or Denmark were to progress it wouldn't surprise me. I actually believe Denmark may be the key to this group. They are probably the team that the others are "expected" to beat - however, I don't think they will lose every game and it is the points they can take off the other sides that may be the deciding factor. The other major factor here is unknown - all the sides must be playing at the top of their game from the start and a stumble in the early stages could prove fatal to any of the teams chances. I'm not entirely sure who would finish top here - and that top place may prove vital in progressing to the final. Given my prediction, the Germany vs Netherlands fixture could prove the most crucial and  after the criticism the Dutch received following their display in the World Cup final I hope we will see "total football" rather than "total violence".

Group C: This seems the easiest to predict as I would expect Spain and Italy to progress. The Republic of Ireland did well to qualify and Croatia came second in a weak group which England won. The only unknown factor here is whether the unfolding betting scandal in Italy will have any bearing on the national side. It is even being suggested that the Italians should withdraw from the competition at this late date. I don't think that will happen but it could have an unsettling effect on the players. Even with this, anything other than Spain and Italy progressing would be a surprise.

Group D: I think France will qualify from this group with ease. Their last World Cup was a debacle but most of the trouble causers from that campaign have been shown the door. The one exception to this is Patrice Evra who I expected never to pull on a blue jersey again given his part as captain of the mutinous squad in South Africa. Laurent Blanc has allowed him to return to the team - presumably because of his undoubted skills as a player rather than his harmonious personality. I'm not sure whether this is a good move but I suspect that no sane man would want to cross swords with Blanc. Aside from that, the French team are peppered with quality world class players. Provided they choose to play as a team I think their progression is guaranteed. The second slot in this group is less certain. I would have said that Sweden would be expected to progress on the balance of form but I suspect that The Ukraine may just scrape past with the advantage of a large home support - this in spite of the age of some of their bigger stars. Of course, the UK media will be focusing on England and they are not entirely without hope in spite of the astonishingly low expectations of the team.

It is usually the case that the media will have already declared England to be the champions elect in any major international tournament even before a ball is kicked. Why is this? Every squad that England has sent to finals will contain a few above average players, maybe one or two genuinely world class stars and numerous journeymen filling in the gaps. I think the tabloid press tend to believe their own hype regarding the England set-up but this time they seem to be largely downbeat about their chances. Certainly, a few of the bigger stars have retired over the last few years but their achievements on the world stage were hardly awe inspiring before that. What seems to have caused the media gloom is the fact that Roy Hodgson has been handed the managers job ahead of the tabloids preferred champion who they had been building up - presumably to take great delight in knocking them down with vegetable metaphors. I feel sympathy towards Hodgson: He is a genuinely well respected coach internationally but seems to be regarded with distain in the UK. He was treated dreadfully by Liverpool in his few months in charge of that rapidly sinking ship but most of his other appointments have seen him pull remarkably good performances out of remarkably average squads - this is exactly what England need right now. At the time of writing he has a 100% record for England. They may have "won ugly" but they did win and the only way he will be able to get a result out of the likes of France is to frustrate them and wait for some good fortune. It might not be the most attractive strategy but it certainly helped Chelsea become European champions against much stronger opposition. His choice of squad contains some brave choices (Oxlade-Chamberlain and Danny Welbeck, for example) as well as some mystifying ones (Stewart Downing, really?) One assumes he does know what he is doing. Whatever happens, I wish him well.

Beyond the group stages I believe it would be a fool who would bet against Spain. They are still a remarkable team but I don't think they are quite as untouchable as they were during the last Euros and even on their way to the World Cup they did, at times, look vulnerable. However, if they go on to become the first nation to retain the Euro championship it would surprise no-one. Their biggest rivals will, I believe, come in the form of Germany, The Netherlands, France with possibly Italy or Russia providing  a challenge. No surprises there, then? If I'm going to pick a non-Spanish challenger I suppose I will have to go with Germany (as my wife will force me to!) I watched their two warm up matches and the key to their success seems to lie with having their core Bayern Munich players fit. Without them, their defence was a shambles as was seen in their 5-3 defeat to Switzerland. Their second warm up game was a 2-0 victory against Israel. They still looked a little rusty to begin with but came into their stride in the second half - particularly when veteran striker Klose replace Gomez up front. I think that position is their one Achilles' Heal but given the quality of their attacking midfielders, who will happily play pass-and-move around an opponents penalty box, I don't think it will be such a problem provided the front man keeps possession (which is not Gomez strong point) or scores (which is).

So as much as I'd like to see Hodgson bring back the trophy to spite The Sun, I predict a Spain vs Germany final (again). But it all depends on what happens in the Group of Death.