It’s almost World Cup time – it all kicks off on Thursday night with Brazil vs Croatia and I have been sent a link from my colleague at work who runs the result prediction game. It’s £3 a shot this time and, whilst I’m not a fan of gambling, I do like to have a go at this one just to prove to myself what a lousy pundit I am. In fact my predictions at Euro 2012 weren’t too bad and I finished in a respectable mid-table position. My predictions for the previous World Cup in South Africa were so bad that some wag renamed my team from “The Stenhousemuir XI” to “Stenhousemuir Nil”. The programmer for the prediction game has amended the game so that the predictions for the group stages will feed through to the later knockout stages. I think it’s the same chap that does the fixture list for the FA so he must know what he’s doing! Anyway – here’s my group-by-group analysis:
Group A. There are two major predictors to doing well at the World Cup. They are playing at home and being Brazil. On that basis I think Brazil will walk Group A. That leaves the runner up spot. I suppose the smart money should go on Mexico. I can’t see Croatia progressing (after all, Scotland have turned them over twice recently) and whilst I have a soft spot for Cameroon I can see them failing to end most games with all 11 players on the pitch: as fun as they are to watch they would make the early 70s Leeds United side look like a bunch of wimps. So I’ll go for Brazil and Mexico.
Group B. The second group looks trickier to predict – with the exception of Australia who I think would do well to go home with a point. I think Spain will win this group although I can see their opening tie with the Netherlands ending as a draw. Chile have the advantage of playing on their home continent but I think the Netherlands and Spain will progress. After winning the last 3 major tournaments it would be easy to say that Spain are past their peak but it is such a high peak and they are so hard to beat I think they will still do well.
Group C. Of all the groups, Group C looks the least attractive to me. Then again it features Japan who have always entertained me (particularly their under-23 side at Hampden Park during the Olympics). The Ivory Coast look like a decent side with Greece and Columbia making up the other two teams. I don’t really know enough about these teams’ form to make a solid prediction but I suspect that Columbia and the Ivory Coast will progress.
Group D. This group really raised a smile around the office when it was drawn out. There always seems to be a “Group of Death” and there is always one team that the others are expected to beat and six months ago that looked like being England. Having seen a few of the teams play I think Costa Rica will be the potential whipping boys (and by definition the team most likely to cause an upset.) Looking through the fixtures I can see this group being very tight and with three former winners it will be guaranteed to throw out a potential “big name”. My prediction comes through with Italy and Uruguay progressing – but only just. If it comes down (as I suspect) to goal difference it could be that Costa Rica are the deciding factor - either by their margin of victory or defeat.
Group E. I think France will win Group E – as long as they don’t self-destruct again. I think French football is now on the rebound but with Franck Ribéry out injured and young players still progressing I don’t think they will progress too far in the knock-out stages. Of the other teams, I have seen both Honduras and Ecuador play recently and was unimpressed with them both. I can see second spot coming down to goal difference again but I predict that Switzerland will progress.
Group F. Argentina look like a shoe-in for this group. They were one of the most entertaining teams at the last World Cup and now having a coach with some technical nous to add to their obvious world-class talents they will be a force to reckon with. Of the other teams, I think Iran will be doing well if they can score but out of the remainder, I can see Bosnia-Herzegovina progressing at the expense of Nigeria. As the Nigerians play Argentina last I think they may just have a slightly easier time than the others but Bosnia have a few world class names in front of goal.
Group G. I think Germany and Portugal will progress from this group but my prediction gives Portugal the edge on goal difference. I don’t think the Germans have had the best preparation with a pointless star-free game against Poland and some other mixed performances filling the time between sponsorship obligations. However, the Germans do have the knack of peaking for tournaments at the right time. Portugal are an odd one in that they can play brilliant team football or end up as a support project for a couple of talented individuals. When they play as a team they are unstoppable. This is actually a very strong group as both the USA and Ghana have the potential to win on their day but I don’t think they will manage this and I will go with progression for the European nations.
Group H. There is often a dark horse team that doesn’t appear at the top of anyone’s list but does well. Uruguay fitted that profile in 2010 although looking over their team list would make anyone wonder why they weren’t favourites. Belgium fit that profile for 2014 and a glance through their squad, whilst picking out few household names, doesn’t highlight any passengers. I would expect Russia to join Belgium in the next round but I don’t see the Koreans or Algerians being a pushover.
My predictions for the knock-out stages are, no doubt, equally haphazard but I end up with a prediction of a Brazil vs Spain final which the Brazilians will win. That’s probably just following the form guide rather than any great insight but after my last few lousy predictions for the likes of Germany, Czech Republic or the Netherlands to win a major trophy it is probably more realistic.
I’ll be trying to watch as many games as possible but with many matches starting nearer to midnight than midday I suspect a few will be skipped (or more likely inadvertently slept through). I’m assuming that Germany and England will get the official support in our house but scanning through for the “Diddy” nation to act as a surrogate Scotland team I would have to pick Bosnia and Herzegovina – they are slightly smaller than Scotland both in area and population, they actually qualified as winners from their group and even have world class stars in the likes of Edin Džeko. There – that’s cursed it! Sorry, Bosnia.
So we are all set. The TV is set up and I now have a bigger one for the bedroom (late night matches and all that). The beer is in the fridge and the half time nibbles are lined up. I’ve even managed to find a decent wall chart. I wasn’t too impressed with the ones in the newspapers and the local newsagent didn’t stock the Observer (which was meant to be half decent.) So I’ve gone for a Sikh flavoured wallchart which is rather cool. I wonder who they will be supporting in India?
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