Euro 2012 - The Predictions

Euro 2012 kicks off this Friday. It doesn't seem that long since the World Cup was on but it must be two years ago now. We have had the game predictor competition handed around at work again. Normally, I don't do very well with these but I had a look at my post prior to the last WorldCup and I actually predicted the eventual winners and third place runner up. However, the teams they would be playing were well wide of the mark. The problem with predicting the big tournaments is that club and international form can go out of the window and the knock out stages can prove a lottery and throw the entire prediction. In a way, I prefer the Euros to the World Cup as the teams have to hit the ground running. There are few, if any, "easy" games and the entertainment value tends to be higher for some reason. Anyway, on a group by group basis, these are my predictions...

Group A: Russia were fantastic to watch at the last Euros but came unstuck when they played the more composed sides. I think they will win their group - certainly they will qualify. The second place team is a harder choice - all of the teams are useful in defence. Greece won Euro 2004 simply by being able to shut out other teams and score on the few breaks they achieved. It's not pretty but it is effective. The Czech Republic have one of the best goalkeepers in world football in the shape of Petr Čech but it is Poland (possibly with Arsenal stopper Wojciech Szczesny) who I believe will grab the second slot with home advantage giving them the edge over their rivals.

Group B: Every Euro championship seems to offer up a "Group of Death" and in this competition it is Group B. I would expect Germany and The Netherlands to qualify from this group but if either Portugal or Denmark were to progress it wouldn't surprise me. I actually believe Denmark may be the key to this group. They are probably the team that the others are "expected" to beat - however, I don't think they will lose every game and it is the points they can take off the other sides that may be the deciding factor. The other major factor here is unknown - all the sides must be playing at the top of their game from the start and a stumble in the early stages could prove fatal to any of the teams chances. I'm not entirely sure who would finish top here - and that top place may prove vital in progressing to the final. Given my prediction, the Germany vs Netherlands fixture could prove the most crucial and  after the criticism the Dutch received following their display in the World Cup final I hope we will see "total football" rather than "total violence".

Group C: This seems the easiest to predict as I would expect Spain and Italy to progress. The Republic of Ireland did well to qualify and Croatia came second in a weak group which England won. The only unknown factor here is whether the unfolding betting scandal in Italy will have any bearing on the national side. It is even being suggested that the Italians should withdraw from the competition at this late date. I don't think that will happen but it could have an unsettling effect on the players. Even with this, anything other than Spain and Italy progressing would be a surprise.

Group D: I think France will qualify from this group with ease. Their last World Cup was a debacle but most of the trouble causers from that campaign have been shown the door. The one exception to this is Patrice Evra who I expected never to pull on a blue jersey again given his part as captain of the mutinous squad in South Africa. Laurent Blanc has allowed him to return to the team - presumably because of his undoubted skills as a player rather than his harmonious personality. I'm not sure whether this is a good move but I suspect that no sane man would want to cross swords with Blanc. Aside from that, the French team are peppered with quality world class players. Provided they choose to play as a team I think their progression is guaranteed. The second slot in this group is less certain. I would have said that Sweden would be expected to progress on the balance of form but I suspect that The Ukraine may just scrape past with the advantage of a large home support - this in spite of the age of some of their bigger stars. Of course, the UK media will be focusing on England and they are not entirely without hope in spite of the astonishingly low expectations of the team.

It is usually the case that the media will have already declared England to be the champions elect in any major international tournament even before a ball is kicked. Why is this? Every squad that England has sent to finals will contain a few above average players, maybe one or two genuinely world class stars and numerous journeymen filling in the gaps. I think the tabloid press tend to believe their own hype regarding the England set-up but this time they seem to be largely downbeat about their chances. Certainly, a few of the bigger stars have retired over the last few years but their achievements on the world stage were hardly awe inspiring before that. What seems to have caused the media gloom is the fact that Roy Hodgson has been handed the managers job ahead of the tabloids preferred champion who they had been building up - presumably to take great delight in knocking them down with vegetable metaphors. I feel sympathy towards Hodgson: He is a genuinely well respected coach internationally but seems to be regarded with distain in the UK. He was treated dreadfully by Liverpool in his few months in charge of that rapidly sinking ship but most of his other appointments have seen him pull remarkably good performances out of remarkably average squads - this is exactly what England need right now. At the time of writing he has a 100% record for England. They may have "won ugly" but they did win and the only way he will be able to get a result out of the likes of France is to frustrate them and wait for some good fortune. It might not be the most attractive strategy but it certainly helped Chelsea become European champions against much stronger opposition. His choice of squad contains some brave choices (Oxlade-Chamberlain and Danny Welbeck, for example) as well as some mystifying ones (Stewart Downing, really?) One assumes he does know what he is doing. Whatever happens, I wish him well.

Beyond the group stages I believe it would be a fool who would bet against Spain. They are still a remarkable team but I don't think they are quite as untouchable as they were during the last Euros and even on their way to the World Cup they did, at times, look vulnerable. However, if they go on to become the first nation to retain the Euro championship it would surprise no-one. Their biggest rivals will, I believe, come in the form of Germany, The Netherlands, France with possibly Italy or Russia providing  a challenge. No surprises there, then? If I'm going to pick a non-Spanish challenger I suppose I will have to go with Germany (as my wife will force me to!) I watched their two warm up matches and the key to their success seems to lie with having their core Bayern Munich players fit. Without them, their defence was a shambles as was seen in their 5-3 defeat to Switzerland. Their second warm up game was a 2-0 victory against Israel. They still looked a little rusty to begin with but came into their stride in the second half - particularly when veteran striker Klose replace Gomez up front. I think that position is their one Achilles' Heal but given the quality of their attacking midfielders, who will happily play pass-and-move around an opponents penalty box, I don't think it will be such a problem provided the front man keeps possession (which is not Gomez strong point) or scores (which is).

So as much as I'd like to see Hodgson bring back the trophy to spite The Sun, I predict a Spain vs Germany final (again). But it all depends on what happens in the Group of Death.